The Securities and Exchange Commission requires this disclaimer for investors; “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” You should consider midterm postmortems with that SEC disclosure in mind. Postmortems do, however, help interpret the voters’ mood on Election Day and what that may foreshadow in government activity.
With that preamble as a caveat, here’s what I make of the midterm results. First is what I’ve gleaned so far. After that I’ll offer my thoughts on what it means for outdoor policy issues.
Post-election hot takes
The center held.
Candidate quality still matters.
Extreme still doesn’t sell. The voters are tired of it.
The voters are not happy, but they are also not crazy.
Voters were not reluctant to split the ticket were it mattered (NH, GA NV).
They want Congress to do their job and quit going off on wacky tangents that are nothing more than political theater.
The voters are seeing through the bullshit. The right and left have called wolf too often.
Grifters profit from pushing election conspiracy theories. Social media is their megaphone.
Social media is a convenient whipping boy but not the only one. Intellectual laziness or incompetence is a bigger problem.
Traditional media is also a convenient whipping boy but not the only one. They need to police their own and do a better job of reporting. They need to check for confirmation bias and invalid “both sides” reporting.
“It turns out that there’s some life left in decency yet. Even when times are hard, there are voters who are unwilling to call good evil and evil good. It turns out that it’s hard to escape the need to persuade and inspire, and that might be the best—and most important—consequence of a midterm election that gave neither party a mandate but reminded the Republicans that malice and lies can do far more political harm than good.” David French, writing in The Dispatch.
“Turnout was especially high for a midterm in several battleground states, where expectations of a close contest appeared to boost voter participation,” Kati Perry, Luis Melgar, Kate Rabinowitz and Dan Keating write in the Washington Post.
Pundits and amateurs will read too much into the results. Confirmation bias still leads to bad predictions and suspect postmortems…
What does it mean for outdoor policy issues? Top line view.
As of this writing, the Senate is split 50/50, which gives the Democrats control. What will be sorted out in the next few weeks is what kind of musical chairs will take place in committee assignments.
The new Senators so far are Britt (R-AL), Budd (R-NC), Fetterman (D-PA), Vance (R-OH) and Welch (D-VT). It’s unclear as of this writing which committees they will be on. I’ll update that when I know if it has a material impact on outdoor policy. I’ll post the update on the webpage rather than fill your email boxes.
We are still waiting to see the results in Alaska and Georgia. Results from those races will not change control of the Senate. We should know Alaska by the end of the month and Georgia runoff is December 6.
In Alaska I’ll go out on a limb and predict Murkowski will hold on to her seat when the dust settles, as will Mary Peltola in the U.S. House. Georgia is a coin-flip, but since it won’t decide control of the Senate, I’ll bet there won’t be as much money invested in the Walker campaign as there would have been. Feel free to ridicule my prognostication in the chat.
11/25: Murkowski and Peltola won reelection.
House control and the resultant committee assignments are still up in the air as I type this. The odds of the Democrats keeping control are not good. How many seats in the majority the Republicans will hold is still uncertain. All I will say is I wouldn't want to be Kevin McCarthy trying to deal with that goat rope…
I’ll update this article on the webpage as well as things in the house get clearer.
11/20/22: We now know the House will be controlled by the GOP.
Outdoor Policy – Lame-duck
Given the crowded lame-duck session agenda, I don’t think any legislation related to the outdoors will get sent to President Biden. If it does, I’ll be happy to eat crow and put an update on the webpage.
Outdoor Policy – 118th Congress
There is a lot of unfinished business from the 117th. The question is how much attention it will get. I’ll be watching the big outdoor conservation, outdoor recreation and outdoor trade groups channel their efforts (see the list below).
How much of an impact the mood of voters will have on congressional attention to outdoor policy remains to be seen. These issues tend to be bipartisan and bicameral, requiring significant amounts of comity to move forward. While I would like to think the midterm results will change attitudes, experience tells me not to get my hopes up.
If there is legislation you are especially keen to see move, put it in the chat and let’s talk about it. I’ll be happy to offer my sense of what its outlook is.